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There is a beautiful unpredictability to golf.
Nearly one-third of last week’s TOUR Championship field was populated by players making their first career start at East Lake. Each of the last three (and 13 of the last 18) major winners were first-time major champions. And 24% of the current top 50 in the Official World Golf Ranking were not there when the year began.
As the PGA TOUR’s new season kicks off this week in California, who are some of the candidates to burst into the next phase of their professional careers? Which players will have breakout seasons in 2020-2021?
15th Club doesn’t have a crystal ball, but a bevy of analytics can help try to answer these questions.
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Will Gordon
There were 181 different players who teed it up in 12 or more stroke play rounds from the Charles Schwab Championship through the TOUR Championship. Would you believe that, of that group, it wasn’t Dustin Johnson or Webb Simpson who had the best scoring average? It was Will Gordon, at 68.17.
Gordon made the most of his opportunities in 2019-20, finishing in the top 25 four times in just 11 starts. That included his breakout week at the Travelers Championship, where he finished tied for third and earned Special Temporary Membership for the rest of the season. From there, he earned more than enough points to acquire full status for 2020-2021.
Gordon built a strong statistical resume, too. He ranked fourth on TOUR in greens in regulation in 2019-2020, 14th in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee, and 17th in driving distance. Also boasting tons of clubhead speed – only Cameron Champ had a higher average on TOUR last season – Gordon could have a successful ’20-21.
Harold Varner III
Statistically, Varner III perfectly fits the profile of a player about to make a leap in 2020-2021.
From 2019 to 2020, Varner III improved in all six primary Strokes Gained statistics. That was especially true in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green, where Varner III has jumped from 93rd (2017-18) to 60th (2018-19) to 8th (2019-20) over three seasons. Varner III finished a heady 18th on the season in Strokes Gained: Total, a jump of 68 spots from the prior season. Of the players ranked in the top-20 in that statistic, only Harris English (up 82 spots) and Daniel Berger (up 76 spots) made bigger improvements from the previous campaign.
An exceptional ball-striker, Varner III hit 73.6 percent greens in regulation since the Return to Golf in mid-June. Only Henrik Norlander (73.8) had a higher G.I.R. percentage among players with 20 or more rounds played. Varner III made the FedExCup Playoffs for a fifth consecutive season in 2020 – nobody should be surprised if he earns his first trip to East Lake in 2021.
Corey Conners
A winner once already on TOUR, Corey Conners is one club away from being a force.
Let’s start with the good stuff: After leading the TOUR in greens in regulation in 2018-2019, he ranked sixth in 2019-2020. For the second consecutive season, Conners ranked in the top-15 in both Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee and Strokes Gained: Approach. From the resumption of play at Colonial through the TOUR Championship, Conners ranked 9th on TOUR in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green and 11th in Approach.
Now the bad stuff: For the second year in a row, Conners ranked precisely 181st in Strokes Gained: Putting. Only six players on TOUR averaged more putts per round than Conners did in 2019-2020.
An undeniable ball-striking talent, Conners could win multiple times next season if his putting numbers improved to near TOUR average.
Cameron Davis
The 2020 statistical profile for Cameron Davis, 25, fits the prototypical young TOUR player.
He makes a lot of birdies (23rd in birdie average), but also mistakes (99th in bogey avoidance). He is long and bold (top 20 in driving distance, 4th in going-for-the-green percentage), but tends to miss cuts more often than the top players (46 percent of his TOUR starts). These traits are common among talented young professionals.
Here’s what’s uncommon: Davis in 2019-20 was consistent: He had positive Strokes Gained in all six denominations – Off-the-Tee, Approach, Around the Green, Putting, Tee to Green and Total. Davis ranks well above average in five of the six metrics, and is right on the middle line when it comes to putting. With an enormous international win under his belt – the 2017 Australian Open – Davis should pop up on more leaderboards in 2021.
Tyrrell Hatton
He has five wins worldwide and is ranked in the top 15 in the world, but the numbers suggest Tyrrell Hatton hasn’t hit his ceiling. Hatton jumped 36 spots this season in scoring average, up to 10th. His Strokes Gained: Total went from 55th to 8th. Only four players averaged more birdies per round than Hatton (4.58 per round) in the Return to Golf.
Maybe most encouraging was the fortitude he showed at the Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard. In some of the toughest conditions in a non-major championship in years, Hatton held on for his first TOUR victory. With five top-ten finishes in majors already on his resume, a first major victory might be next on the horizon.
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Source: PGA tour
