After a one-week hiatus, the FedExCup Playoffs return for the BMW Championship outside of Chicago. GolfChannel.com senior writers Rex Hoggard and Ryan Lavner were asked on the conversational tool Slack, Which player, if any, will be hampered the most by the break: Dustin Johnson, Justin Thomas or Jordan Spieth?
The two took it from there. No moderator necessary.
Lavner: No player will be affected by the off-week – they won’t lose all of their ability because they put away the clubs for a few days, and all three needed a little break. I do, however, think it was good for Spieth. Motivation is never an issue for him, but with back-to-back runner-up finishes in the playoffs, and being thisclose to putting it all together, it was a nice reset.
Hoggard: I wouldn’t think the break would impact any player considering how much golf they have been playing lately, although Johnson returning to an event where he is the defending champion (the BMW was played at a different venue last year) can only fuel his confidence.
Lavner: You’re really going to play the defending champ card? He tied for seventh the last time this event was held at Conway Farms (2015).
Hoggard: OK, he’s finished first-T-18 in his last two starts and looks like the guy who was unbeatable earlier this year. That work?
Lavner: Fair enough, but if we’re looking at the favorites for this week, he’d be third on my list, behind Thomas and Spieth, in that order.
Hoggard: Would say all three of those players would be co-favorites for the foreseeable future until Rory McIlroy, Jason Day, et al, rediscover some form. Dark horse would be a more interesting topic?
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Current FedExCup Playoff points standings
Lavner: The dark horse for this week is Patrick Cantlay. He opened these playoffs with back-to-back top-15s, continuing what has been a remarkable comeback season. It’s been so impressive, in fact, that I thought he should have been one of Captain Stricker’s wildcard picks for the Presidents Cup.
Hoggard: Glad you shared your views on Cantlay being a pick. Maybe Stricker could have selected Bigfoot as well? Cantlay has been a solid story, but I will be interested to see how Kevin Chappell responds after earning his spot on the team and playing well in New York.
Lavner: All right, the BMW marks the halfway point of the postseason. We know all about the top five, and how it mirrors the top five in the world ranking (shameless plug: read my story!), but who outside the magic number could crash this playoff party?
Hoggard: Have to go with Paul Casey on this one. Although he’s probably going to be a bit distracted after the birth of his second child this week, the dude has done everything except win in recent weeks with top-5 finishes at four of his last six starts.
Lavner: No doubt, he’s been a machine in the playoffs the last two years, but to win the FedExCup he is going to have to win at least one playoff event. That’s a lot to ask of a guy who has one career victory on Tour.
Hoggard: Agreed, and his finish in Boston (T-4) seemed to suggest his bridesmaid status is starting to become an issue. Should also mention Marc Leishman as a possible party crasher. It was a tough finish for him in Boston, but he is always overlooked/underrated.
Lavner: Criminally underrated. I would throw out Justin Rose as a potential outsider. It hasn’t been the best year for him since that crushing loss at Augusta, but he has consecutive top-10s in the playoffs and his record at East Lake is so good (four consecutive top-6s) that he just needs to give himself a chance to cash in.
Hoggard: There are no shortage of guys who can change the script, but it’s hard to imagine how this doesn’t come down to the (current) Big 3 of Spieth, Thomas and Johnson. To be honest, I’m not sure our conversation three weeks from now if, say, Leishman wins the season-long race, will be overly kind. Playoffs should identify the best, and right now those three are the best.
Lavner: But with apologies to Bill Haas and Brandt Snedeker and Billy Horschel, it hasn’t always done that, right? As the cup moves into its second decade, are we finally OK with how this whole thing works?
Hoggard: From a general perspective (the top players competing in large markets during a time of year they normally wouldn’t), the playoffs have been successful. Details, however, are always difficult for fans, players and media to understand. The Tour could help this along by simplifying the process.
Lavner: And how would you do that? I’m fine with the cutoffs for the top 100, 70 and then 30, but the Tour Championship needs a serious makeover. I would suggest a five-day event: three rounds of stroke-play qualifying, then a match-play bracket for the top 8 and the shot at $10 million. Might get a dud championship match, but at least the format would be something different.
Hoggard: The Tour has spent a decade considering a similar kind of head-to-head finish at East Lake with little success/interest, so I’m not sure we will see any significant changes there. The circuit will, however, need to tinker with the field sizes and points distribution when the schedule makeover starts in 2019. If there are only going to be three playoff events, which seems likely, there will need to be more volatility.
Lavner: Except volatility isn’t a good thing for a “season-long race,” which the FedEx is supposed to be. If DJ or Thomas or Spieth get bumped in the first event, then everyone is livid (and rightfully so).
Hoggard: Not sure there would be that much volatility, but there will need to be a way for those who just make the playoffs (either top 125 or top 100 on the points list) to advance. Under the current format that’s not going to happen.
Lavner: Well, that’s why those in Ponte Vedra get paid the big bucks, to figure out these sorts of dilemmas. Let’s wrap it up with this: With two weeks to go, who is your pick to win the cup?
Hoggard: There is something strangely concerning about Spieth’s finishes in the first two post-season starts (back-to-back runner-up finishes), but he continues to be the most consistent player and he has won the season-long race before. That experience will be the difference.
Lavner: I don’t know about “concerning” – he got beat by the better players that week. But I, too, am going with Spieth. He has the most to gain over these two weeks, and he should come out firing on venues where he’s had prior success. Or maybe that’s just wishful thinking, because a Spieth FedEx title would (will?) make for a very compelling Player of the Year vote.
Hoggard: I like your thinking, but I’m pretty sure Thomas wrapped up POY with his victory in Boston, according to the players I’ve spoken to. See you after East Lake.
Lavner: Seems that’s a Slack convo for another day.